Crypto Market Signals Indicate a Potential Shift for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Key Insights:

  • On-chain data signals Bitcoin and Ethereum are nearing a market turnaround.
  • JPMorgan’s analysis predicts limited crypto market drops ahead.
  • SEC’s ETF decisions in September could sway Bitcoin’s trajectory.

The cryptocurrency landscape continually changes, and recent on-chain data suggests a potential shift. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), two prominent digital currencies, display trends suggesting they are approaching a local bottom. The Net Unrealized Profit or Loss (NUPL) metric for these assets aligns with previous patterns.

During the latest cryptocurrency market slump, which witnessed $1 billion in liquidations on August 17, insights from JPMorgan’s leading analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, hint at a potential market rebound.

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The team at JPMorgan believes that the significant holdings in CME’s bitcoin derivatives markets tell a story of an impending halt to the current market decline. In a fresh note to investors, Panigirtzoglou suggests that the cryptocurrency market might see limited drops in the upcoming period.

At the time of writing, referencing data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin and Ethereum are witnessing slight declines. Bitcoin is priced at $26,049.03, showing a 0.06% drop, while Ethereum stands at $1,653.31, down by 0.05% in the last 24 hours.

BTC vs. ETH 1-day price chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin’s trading volume stands at an impressive $12.59 billion, bolstering a market cap of $507.11 billion, with 19,467,700 BTC coins circulating, edging closer to its 21 million cap. Conversely, Ethereum’s trading volume is $5.48 billion, reflecting a market cap of approximately $198.76 billion, with 120,216,444 ETH coins in circulation, though its maximum supply remains unspecified.

BTC’s Unrealized Profit Dips to a 5-Month Low

Recent data from Glassnode present a notable pattern. The Relative Unrealized Profit for BTC has descended to its lowest in five months, registering at 0.402. This indicates an increasing count of traders incurring losses. Typically, this pattern hints at the asset nearing its price floor. Importantly, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s present value marks a considerable increase from its sub-$20K valuation in early 2023.

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BTC relative unrealized profit (Source: glassnode)

Ethereum’s data reflects a similar pattern. The count of profitable ETH addresses, using a 7-day average, has hit a five-month low. This suggests that Ethereum’s value could be nearing its floor. Past analyses highlight the importance of the price bracket between $1700 and $1577. Surpassing the $1700 mark might propel Ethereum’s price.

Potential SEC Announcements May Impact Bitcoin’s Direction

Lately, Bitcoin’s value has been hovering around the $30,000 mark. This stable phase coincides with the buzz around Bitcoin ETF submissions. In the upcoming first week of September, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is set to provide insights on multiple ETF submissions, some from key players in the industry. Yet, the SEC could only notice the initial timelines with significant announcements.

In conclusion, while the excitement around Bitcoin ETF filings appears to be diminishing, on-chain data for Bitcoin and Ethereum offers valuable insights.