Key Insights:

• The Bitcoin market anticipates a pivotal week with CPI, PPI data, and ARK Invest’s ETF decision on the horizon.
• Inflation concerns rise as CPI data release approaches, potentially impacting Bitcoin and the crypto market.
• ARK Invest awaits the Bitcoin ETF decision, a potential game-changer for the crypto market.

The Bitcoin and crypto market is at a critical crossroads as the week unfolds. Amid a torrent of economic data, three events have emerged as particularly significant: the unveiling of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, along with the eagerly awaited Bitcoin ETF verdict for ARK Invest.

Inflation Concerns Loom as CPI Data Release Approaches

The CPI, an inflation barometer, is under intense scrutiny as the US wrestles with fluctuating inflation rates. The headline CPI for July will climb from 3 to 3.3% YoY. This significant shift comes as the beneficial base effects from the previous year start to wane.

Moreover, the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast model forecasts a 3.42% headline CPI, slightly above the consensus. This data release will be particularly interesting, especially in light of the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

Currently, 84.5% of the market believes there will be no further rate hikes at the next FOMC in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, a resurgence in inflation data could flip these expectations. Notably, two CPI data releases will be before the next FOMC meeting from September 19-20. If inflation picks up both times, it could spell trouble for the financial markets.

PPI Data Release: A Leading Indicator for CPI

The PPI, a measure of the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers, is often seen as a precursor to the CPI. Last month’s PPI YoY was a mere 0.1%, teetering on the brink of negative territory. However, forecasts for July suggest a rebound to 0.7%.

Every month, the PPI rose 0.1% in June, with a 0.2% rise expected in July. A rising PPI could foreshadow re-accelerating CPI data as producers pass on increased costs to consumers. This could lead to a subsequent rise in the CPI, potentially influencing investor sentiment and Bitcoin and crypto market strategies.

ARK Invest Awaits Bitcoin ETF Decision

One of the biggest potential catalysts for the market could be approving a Bitcoin spot ETF. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest is the first to face a decision. While financial giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco await an initial response from the SEC, Ark Invest is already one step ahead.

The SEC has previously postponed Ark’s application once, with its next deadline set for Sunday, August 13. The SEC has three options: greenlight the application, deny it, or prolong the review period. Most specialists predict another delay in Ark’s application from the SEC. However, considering recent statements from SEC Chairman Gensler, an unexpected outcome remains possible.

As Bitcoin’s price is $29,044.18, the crypto market is bracing for a significant week ahead. Given these three crucial events in the pipeline, investors and market observers will watch the unfolding developments.

BTC/USD I-day price chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)